Diplomacy behind the Mosul Campaign

The recent strikes launched by the Iraqi force, aided by an assortment of Sunni and Shia militia, and Kurdish peshmerga and USA forces, against ISIS is undoubtedly a deathblow to the so-called Caliphate of ISIS. The Mosul was among the largest cities in the possession of the militants. Half of ISIS’s machinery was operating by the resources harvesting from this city.  And such grave tragedy has never been experienced since its emergence. So, on expelling the militants from this oil-rich and largest city of Iraq, the militants have moved towards Syria‒the neighbor country. However, the step taken to undermine the ISIS is indeed an appreciable, but the intention behind the campaign is struggle for power.

The strikes undertaken against the militants have its roots in the arch-rivalry of US and Russia. Both of the countries have a long-running battles and either one is struggling to surpass one another. In this context, Russia’s position in Syria is overwhelmingly strong, and US’s position in Iraq. The former one is supporting the Syrian government‒the Shia majority region, while the later one is supporting Iraqi government‒that comprises of two to three ethnicities. So, the intrusion of US in Iraq against the militants is only to drive the militants to Syria. However, a large swamp of militants would further hamper the chances normalization in Syrian.

Moreover, the recent mutual understanding between Turkey and Russia terrified US. It was just a couple of months before that the two countries were positioned at extreme point against each other. Neither Russia had done compromised nor Turkey. The situation had escalated to the level that the Russia’s plane had targeted by the Turkey on its boundary. Both were on the brink of going at war. However, these two countries entered into an atmosphere of reconciliation that directly impacted a policy of US.

The campaign at Mosul manifested policies of aforementioned countries quite clearly. It is stated that Turkey has involved in the campaign against militants. She has been participated on the pretext to ensure security to the lives of Sunni people, and above all, has given to her the dream that Iraq was once a part of Ottoman Empire. Even though the Iraqi government rejected Turkey’s participation as the former one is afraid of encroachment by the later one. And more importantly, Turkey is part of NATO, and her participation in the country next to Syria, where Russia and Iran are working for last many months, would cause repugnance in the relationship of these countries (Russia, Turkey and Iran).

However, eviction of militants of Mosul would cause things to happen virally. It is something becomes obscure to forecast the projection of policies of these countries, and fate of the countries where these hawkish and belligerent countries are playing.

Few things that may happen and cause huge cost to the countries are: the fear of militant’s regression to the former way generating fear in the masses, the likelihood that ISIS militants would cause mayhem in Syria once they stable which would be a deathblow to Russia and Iran, and above all, those militants that have gone to Iraq on the call of al-Baghdadi to establish Caliphate would come to their dwells and if this happen that might bring a new color to extremism.